Wild Card Preview II: Get ready for an offensive shootout in Georgia

By Andy Richmond
January 3rd, 2009

Sudden death is the name of the game in the NFL, as the final 12 get their chance to make it to Tampa and Superbowl XLIII - the four games are full of intrigue, says Andy Richmond.

Saturday takes us to the West Coast and games at Arizona and San Diego.

Atlanta (11-5) at Arizona (9-7)

An unlikely pairing if judged on last year’s standings, the Cardinals finished 8-8 and the Falcons an even more miserable 4-12 Add to that Falcons record the Michael Vick fiasco, and various coaching misdemeanours and there was very little momentum or motivation within the team.

Both sides have turned events around and face each other in what promises to be the most entertaining game of the quartet over the weekend and the stage is set for an offensive shootout.

Arizona’s high-powered passing game contrasts with Atlanta’s ground game controlled by rookie QB Matt Ryan and superbly executed by RB Michael Turner - a return of 208 yards last week providing a quality warm up for this clash.

The Arizona defence leaked 26.6 points per game this year and will have their hands full with Turner and his partner in crime Jerious Norwood if they don’t tackle better than they did last week. That will allow the Falcons to establish the passing game that Ryan has been so good at executing this season. He’ll be well protected by his offensive line - only 17 sacks allowed all year, and the Cardinals have not exactly generated much defensive pressure this year - expect Ryan to look deep for WR Roddy White, who had a big game against the Cardinals last year and could do so again.

Arizona will be propelled offensively on the arm of rejuvenated former Rams star QB Kurt Warner and his corps of imposing wide receivers, Boldin, Fitzgerald and Breaston, all have more than 1,000 yards receiving this year and have combined for 26 TD catches. Match that against a suspect Falcons secondary and you can see that there is the potential for a shoot out here with both offences much stronger than the defences.

But as I see it the Cards have a weaker team overall and can make mistakes, often getting that high powered offence off to a slow start which forces them into playing catch up football without a running game, and that makes their game very one dimensional and predictable.

If you are playing in-running just keep this little statistic in mind - if the Falcons score first don’t expect the Cardinals to come back as the Falcons are 11-0 this season when they get the first points on the board and 0-5 when they don’t.

Recommendation: Falcons to keep flying high and keep one of the feel good stories going - back them at 1.9 and support Michael Turner to keep on running - back his rushing yards over 90.5 at 1.8.

Indianapolis (12-4) at San Diego (8-8)

If the above match up is hard to predict then this heavyweight battle is even harder - both teams had a dreadful start to the season and only Denver’s complete collapse allowed the Chargers to grab a play-off berth in the last game of the regular season, the Colts enter the fray on a nine game winning streak. Arguably these two are the real form teams at the moment and ultimately is a pity that they have to play each other now - this game being a re-match of last year’s battle in the divisional round when the Chargers extinguished the Colts Superbowl hopes 28-24.

The last three games between these two have been decided by a total of nine points and I expect it to be another close, high octane contest on Saturday night.

Initially, I thought that the Colts might have the greater momentum, courtesy of that nine game winning streak, but if you delve deeper the schedule was weak and you would have expected the Colts to win the majority of those games - they command respect but the Chargers, despite their patchy and erratic campaign, are still a class act and are having a little luck of late.

Both offences can move the ball quickly and are directed by two of the best and most accurate quarterbacks in the business, Peyton Manning for the Colts has a experienced and varied receiving corps which allow him to dissect defences with deadly accuracy, but they do lack a potent running game and that will allow the Chargers to attack Manning and attempt to knock him out of his stride.

The Chargers will be driven along by the brash QB Philip Rivers but he’s been at his best lately, especially when using go-to guy WR Vincent Jackson - expect him to make a real impact - and if the Chargers can mix up their offence, they might just have the edge in this tight wild card fight.

Recommendation: A pick ‘em game really and the odds dictate that the Chargers are the pick at 2.06 but don’t forget you have trading options during the game as this will be close like their previous games.

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Wild Card Preview: Can comeback king Dolphins breakdown Ravens’ defense?

By Andy Richmond
January 3rd, 2009

The wild card round on Saturday brings the potential for two high scoring offensive shoot outs - Sunday brings a complete contrast where defence may well hold sway but it’s the road teams once again who enter the fray as favourites, says Andy Richmond.

Baltimore (11-5) at Miami (11-5)

Two teams with feel good stories step up to the plate here - the comeback kings of the season are Miami. From 1-15 last year they have rebounded this year to a divisional title and an 11-5 record under the tutelage of Bill Parcells and rookie head coach Tony Sparano - quite remarkable.

This is the Dolphins first play-off appearance since 2001, when in the wild card round they hosted ironically the Ravens who triumphed 20-3, most names and faces have moved on from that clash but Baltimore still display their trademark dominating defence, with linebacker Ray Lewis the heart and soul.

These two have already met this season and that was a game that gave the Ravens momentum - snapping a three game losing streak and propelling them to a run which saw them win nine of their last eleven games. It was also the game that changed rookie QB Joe Flacco’s season, he had thrown one TD pass and seven interceptions in his first five games, but tossed 13 scoring passes and just five picks the rest of the way.

Apart from the dominating defence, the Ravens also have a nicely balanced offense with Flacco’s arm providing a deep threat and a good one-two running punch from backs Le’Ron McClain and Willis McGahee.

The Ravens’ defence will be a daunting task for Miami to solve, having allowed the third-fewest points in the league and not allowing an opposing running back to rush for 100 yards in 35 consecutive games. If the Dolphins are to solve the problem it certainly won’t be via the much vaunted “Wildcat” package, which basically involves RB Ronnie Brown taking shotgun snaps from centre and running - that package expanded as the season progressed.

But Miami had little success using the system when the teams met in October; they tried three plays using the “Cat” and got four yards, so it will be interesting to see what tactics the Dolphins employ, my guess would be that they will rely more on QB Chad Pennington to carry the offense using a short passing, ball control offense especially as the Ravens have a dominating and suffocating run defence.

Another fascinating duel awaits, and we’ll certainly see a variation of styles - I just wonder how much emotionally the Dolphins were drained by last week’s win over the Jets and Baltimore look like they have the mental toughness required to win anywhere.

Recommendation: Ravens to repeat the week six win and end the Flipper fairytale - back the Ravens -3.5 at 2.08.

Philadelphia (9-6-1) at Minnesota (10-6)

The final week of the season saw these two squeeze into the post season - the Eagles especially needed a complicated set of results and got them to extend their up and down season, the game features two of the best running backs in the NFL - Peterson for the Vikes and Westbrook in the Eagles camp.

It also features two very strong defences and two quarterbacks who have both been benched this year before bouncing back in recent weeks to guide their teams into this game.

The Eagles are first and foremost a pass orientated team but they run the ball effectively to complement the passing game. They are a very effective unit and that will be vital on Sunday.

Can they establish the running game against the number one ranked rushing defence of the Viking? The answer to that question will be covered ostensibly by the fitness of nose tackle Pat Williams who if he does miss this game will hand the Eagles a huge chance to establish their ground game and provide a base for QB Donovan McNabb to find his two game breaking targets - Westbrook and DeSean Jackson, McNabb should have time to find them both as the Vikings concentrate on run stuffing and not blitzing and pressuring the quarterback.

Adrian Peterson has almost on his own rushed the Vikings into this position, his 1,760 yards a incredible output in his second season, but in the Eagles defence he will meet a unit which execute all facets of this discipline well.

Most notably they love to blitz and pressure a quarterback and in Tavaris Jackson, Minnesota have a quarterback who is slowly finding his feet again after early season mistakes. He still has good weapons as his disposal in WR Bernard Berrian and TE Visanthe Shiancoe and of course his safety valve in Peterson.

However, I still feel he is inexperienced and he’ll make one or two mistakes which will cost the Vikings the game. This will be tactical and tough but I expect the Eagles to keep that Metrodome play-off record intact.

Recommendation: Not sure how they got here, but now they are back the Eagles to keep on going - Eagles match odds at 1.7 is the call and back under 42.5 match points at 1.84 in this close contest.

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NFL Week 17 Preview: Patriots in unfamiliar territory

By Andy Richmond
December 27th, 2008

We’re approaching the business end of the Gridiron season and in a very rare situation, the New England Patriots need to win to ensure they’re around in the Post-Season. Andy Richmond talks us through their match plus the other crucial games this weekend.

All of these games have issues at stake this week as we move into the final week of the regular NFL season and say goodbye to 20 teams and move forward with just the 12 for post season.

Some games are head-to-heads for a final place and some have some very convoluted outcomes which would see the winners qualify for the post season if results go in their favour elsewhere.

The focus within our three games this week is in the AFC, a conference that is by far the more complicated of the two - if you want to gain the full picture then take a look at my article unravelling the whole AFC conundrum.

New England (10-5) at Buffalo (7-8)

The Patriots duly annihilated the Cardinals last week but still need help to get into the post season. The first objective is to take care of the Bills; that done they then have to hope for help - an unfamiliar position for the Patriots.

The snow arrived at Foxboro last week and once again QB Matt Cassell thrived in adverse weather conditions, and we should still remember that the Patriots have the number four ranked offence in the NFL - and a nicely balanced one at that. Cassell has done a tremendous job standing in for the injured Tom Brady, especially over the past few games where he has passed for 14 touchdowns in the last six games - seven of those going to Randy Moss.

We mentioned adverse weather conditions and the Ralph Wilson Stadium, home to the Bills is predicted to see snow flurries, temperatures around zero and a strong wind - that will suit the Patriots who for all of the receiving skills of Randy Moss, have the ground game to trouble the Bills - power being provided by Sammy Morris and LaMont Jordan and speed by Kevin Faulk; the Bills will struggle to hold those three.

Offensively, the Bills have struggled to find any consistency and RB Fred Jackson may once again be expected to pick up much of the ground game, after Marshawn Lynch went down with a shoulder injury last week, the Patriots will be looking to shut down the Bills on the ground to force them into their more erratic passing game which focuses on WR Lee Evans.
New England have won ten straight against Buffalo. If they make it eleven, they still have a shot at the post season.

RECOMMENDATION: Tough handicap to overcome but a small play on the Patriots -6.5 at 2.16 is a worth a shot

Miami (10-5) at NY Jets (9-6)

You could call this the game of karma as former Jets QB Chad Pennington “comes home” to the Meadowlands with a shot at putting the 1-15 (last year) Dolphins into the post season with a divisional title - how sweet that would be for Pennington, tossed aside when Brett Favre decided that retirement was not for him after all.

The equation is a simple one then for the Dolphins - win and you are in, and they certainly have momentum at the moment winning their last four and eight of the last nine. The Jets on the other hand are stumbling in the stretch and confidence and belief appears to have deserted them.

Miami, with Pennington’s accurate passing game have enough variety in the rest of their offensive game plan to trouble the Jets - especially as the Jets much-vaunted run defence has crumbled in the past few weeks.

Confidence is the key to this game and it would appear that the Dolphins have a much greater quantity of that at the moment than the Jets do.

RECOMMENDATION: Head could rule the heart here BUT let’s back “Flipper” to complete an amazing turnaround; Miami +3.5 at 2.0 is the call

Denver (7-8) at San Diego (8-7)

This clash is the de facto AFC West Championship game and we got here basically because Denver have failed to close out the division and San Diego have rebounded from a 4-8 start to win their last three games.

Pass, pass and more pass will be the bottom line of this game - Denver have had their running game decimated beyond belief by injuries and San Diego have seen a reduced end product from RB LaDainian Tomlinson. So come Sunday night it will down to the arms of the young QBs - Cutler for the Broncos and Rivers for the Chargers - Cutler goes against the worst pass defence in the AFC, but they must know what to expect this time and the Broncos don’t really have the ground game to keep the Broncos honest.

Rivers is having a monster season and the Broncos will remember what he did to them back in Week two and he’ll have a great chance to do just the same against the lacklustre Broncos defence.

It will all come down to execution, nerve, experience and most importantly momentum… and that favours the Chargers in this match up.

RECOMMENDATION: Two poor defences, two good offences can only add up to one thing- points . Sit back and enjoy as the points pile up and back over 50.5 match points at 1.95.

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NFC Conference Post-Season Betting: New York taking the easy route this time

By Andy Richmond
December 24th, 2008

Andy Richmond spells out the emerging post-season situation in the NFC, where the only the Giants will be twiddling their thumbs in week 17.

It’s not quite as complicated in the NFC as the AFC but there are still issues to be settled and events that will undoubtedly have an effect on how the post-season shapes up.

Four of the six places up for grabs have gone already and five teams are vying for the two vacant spots.

We’ll start with the ones we can’t lose.

Unlike the AFC, where the top two are locked in, only one team is guaranteed to be top of the pile here, the Giants. The road to the Superbowl will go through the Big Apple, unlike last year when it was the Giants who did all the travelling on their way to the ultimate triumph.

The Giants have just carried on where they left off from last year, overcoming injuries and off the field incidents with a great team spirit, a pounding running game and a dominating defence - they never know when they are beaten and I wouldn’t rule out them reappearing at “The Show” come February.

That moves us neatly onto the side vanquished by the Giants last week and what a potentially devastating loss it was for the Carolina Panthers who had a shot at the one spot but missed it. A loss to the Saints could push Carolina down to number five on the ladder - apart from divisional rivalry and the single season passing yards record for Drew Brees (he needs 405 yards) the Saints have little to play for, but I don’t think that will stop them trying to trip up the Panthers here. The Panthers need to focus on this tricky game before they can start making their post-season plans and I have a nasty feeling that this trip to New Orleans may trip them up.

If that happens then another team in turmoil at the start of the season, the Atlanta Falcons, will rise from the number five spot to number two on the ladder, meaning a week off and homefield advantage in the play-offs. First things first though, they must beat one of the whipping boys of the NFL - the Rams.

If you thought Miami was a story of the weak made good, then Atlanta would equal if not better that, and you would have got huge odds about Atlanta having a winning season let alone winning the division back in September. But with rookie QB Matt Ryan playing like a veteran and RB Michael Turner running over everything in his path they have, under the direction of first season coach Mike Smith, been the surprise of the season to me. Atlanta, no matter where they finish, are going to be dangerous opponents in the post season.

The next port of call for us is the NFC North which looks destined for Minnesota by default. This is a two pronged battle between the Vikings and the Bears. Although they face the number one ranked Giants, the Viking may have got lucky in that NY are likely to rest some starters. Whatever happens to the Vikings, the last gasp Bears, hanging on thanks to two back-to-back overtime victories still have to win in Houston. Chicago’s petrol gauge must be showing empty by now.

Almost locked into the number four slot are the Arizona Cardinals - the forgotten team in the play-offs, and to be honest, one of the weakest. The Cardinals qualified early, their foot has come off the pedal and they arrive with very little momentum or belief, I’m sure the wild cards won’t be fearing a visit to the desert!

See, I told you this was easier than the AFC, stay with me as this is the only difficult section as we unravel the final spot.

Dallas are currently in, while Tampa Bay, Philadelphia and Chicago all currently out. First to go will be the Bears, not certain to win in Houston which they need to do with help from others.

Tampa Bay are rocking at the moment but should overcome the Raiders at home and then it all rests on the result of the Eagles-Cowboys match up. If the Cowboys win, it’s au revoir Tampa Bay. For Philadelphia, even more help is needed, with Eagles fans hoping for losses by Tampa Bay and Chicago, the latter I can see but the former I can’t.

All of that means that we’ll end up with this six pack for post season NFC action.

NFC Post Season Six Hits
1 -NY Giants - a repeat, don’t rule it out, the same template is still working.
2 - Carolina - this would tee up a Meadowlands rematch - bring it on.
3 - Minnesota - need key players back to make an impact, three seed flatters.
4 - Arizona - there by default, stronger teams have missed out this year.
5 - Atlanta - from zeros to heros, nobody will want to play this dangerous bunch.
6 - Dallas - ego’s aplenty but also talent, America’s team can stay alive, just.

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AFC Conference Post-Season Betting: Miami are on the cusp of a very special turnaround

By Andy Richmond
December 24th, 2008

Andy Richmond looks at the contenders for post-season play in the AFC - three spots are taken - but the other three are wide open and the Dolphins could be one of them.

Six places, three taken, three there for the taking and six teams still in the running for those remaining places, that is, in it’s simplest form the AFC play-off picture.

Sunday’s games bring a mind boggling labyrinth of possibilities. There are bound to be moments when one minute a team is in, and the next they’re out.

Let’s deal with the known factors first, both Tennessee Titans and Pittsburgh Steelers are done and dusted as the first two seeds respectively.

Tennessee set the early pace this year and, despite a small blip, came back strongly last week when beating up the Steelers to seal the number one slot - rough, tough and with a dominating defence, Tennessee have rediscovered their momentum at the right time and will hit the post-season fit, healthy and rested. Nashville will be a tough place to visit.

Pittsburgh will at least have two weeks to recover from the Titans defeat to steel themselves for a re-match. Tough they may be but I was disappointed in their demeanour and heart last week and they need to rebound post season.

Before it gets complicated, the only other team that has their post-Xmas play sorted are the Colts from Indianapolis - an eight game winning streak has carried them this far and they are a dangerous wild card that nobody will want to play. Just one negative though is the lack of a running game and will MVP contender QB Peyton Manning be able to carry them all the way again?

Simple facts over, here comes the difficult part - if Baltimore beat Jacksonville this week they take the remaining wild card spot. The Ravens are really starting to remind me of the Giants of last year, who of course went all the way to Superbowl glory. Baltimore play physical football and will be a dangerous opponent wherever they go next.

Well that was easy, a Baltimore victory solves another spot, let’s move onto the car crash that is the AFC West. This looked all over about a month ago but the Denver Broncos lost confidence, started leaking points and are close to being the second team in NFL history to blow a three game divisional lead. I’d argue that if you lose to divisional rivals like the Chiefs and Raiders you don’t deserve to win the division and now they face divisional rivals San Diego in a one-game battle for the play-offs.

The Chargers have had a season of turmoil and close defeats, including a 39-38 loss to the Broncos back in Week Two when the officiating crew made one of the mistakes of the season so far.

So it’s a winner takes all scenario in the AFC West and the number four seed up for grabs. For me, the Chargers deserve a break and they can win a points fest on the back of Rivers’ arm to break into the post-season ‘AFC Six’.

Still with me? Take a deep breath then, because this is where it gets really complicated - the AFC East. NY Jets, Miami and New England form a three headed monster of a conundrum that involves not only them but other teams and results too.

For Miami the equation is simple: beat the Jets and lock down the number three seed, lose and they are (almost) certainly sitting at home for the New Year, having come that close to completing the comeback of the season, remember that these boys were 1-15 last year.

The Jets may well they must be pointing to their West Coast failures (0-4) as the games which cost them a divisional title, throw in the back story of playing against their former QB Chad Pennington, who they were quick to jettison when they sold their soul to bring back former Packers icon Brett Favre and you have the making of a massive showdown with huge and pivotal implications. Even if the Jets do win they are relying on others to do them a favour.

There’s one last piece of the jigsaw left then - the Patriots. Like the Jets they will be relying on others, the first thing they must do is win in Buffalo and then hope for a Miami defeat which would carry them to an unlikely AFC title and one of the compelling stories of the year after losing QB Tom Brady, the jewel in their crown, earlier in the year.

Phew! Got there, I think!!

My AFC Super Six…
1 - Tennessee - rough, tough, gritty and hard to beat.
2 - Pittsburgh - not as bombproof as once thought, the Titans showed that.
3 - Miami - Flipper completes the comeback in NY - 1-15 all but forgotten.
4 - San Diego - where did they come from? 8-8 gets them in.
5 - Indianapolis - riding the Manning wave, but need to find a running game.
6 - Baltimore - beat Jacksonville and then attempt a Giants imitation.

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NFL Betting Preview: Panthers march into Big Apple on winning streak

By Andy Richmond
December 20th, 2008

This weekend may see the mists clear a little in the NFL post-season picture but not by much. With just two games to go in the regular season, 19 teams remain in the race to extend their season into the New Year, says Andy Richmond.

Two of this weekend’s main games on SKY are de facto showdowns for home field advantage in the play-offs - those are the two that bookend this triumvirate of games at Tennessee and New York respectively - only winners this weekend need apply for the an extension to their season.

Pittsburgh (11-3) at Tennessee (12-2)

If you thought the Pittsburgh vs. Baltimore contest was exceptional fare last week, this match will definitely float your boat. These two have the best records in the AFC, they have both allowed less than 200 total points this season and both allow less than 300 yards per game - defensively they have been outstanding.

But at the moment these two appear to be going in the opposite direction to each other - the Steelers have won five straight games by a combined score of 104-52, the last three wins all coming against very tough opposition - New England, Dallas and Baltimore. Whereas a month ago it looked a foregone conclusion that the Titans would host the AFC Championship game they were blown away by the Jets 34-14 and then displayed more shortcomings last Sunday as the Texans defeated them 13-12 and they lost Pro Bowl defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth late in the game to a sprained MCL.

Haynesworth is a huge part of the Titans defence and in the three games that he missed last season, the opponent managed an average of 160 yards rushing. Throw in the added absence of defensive end Kyle Vanden Bosch and the Titans “D” will have a patched up feel this weekend and whilst the Steelers running game has stuttered this season, you feel though that they will major on that part of the game offensively with the Titans missing two key players.

The Steelers number one ranked defence will know exactly what the Titans will be bringing at that them, the 1-2 punch of the RB’s LenDale White and Chris Johnson, stop them and that will force Titans QB Kerry Collins into a position where he doesn’t appear comfortable - passing, and having to make plays - he’s completed just 51.8% of his passes with three interceptions in his last two games.

Sunday could be just round one between these two teams on Sunday with a re-match possibile in the AFC Championship game.

Recommendation:
6-1 on the road the Steelers can make that 7-1 here to have a shot at the number one seeding - back the Steelers at 1.78.

Atlanta (9-5) at Minnesota (9-5)

These two are mirror images of each other, the main similarity being in their strong running games, led by the NFL’s top two rushers in the Vikings’ Adrian Peterson and Atlanta’s Michael Turner.

If anything it will be Turner who finds things tough on Sunday, even though the Vikes are without one of the key components of their dominant defence in nose tackle Pat Williams.

With Williams they have been holding the opposition to 71.2 yards per game this season. That facet of their game alone will make emerging and likable rookie QB Matt Ryan do a little more work through the air, although with Pro Bowl wide receiver Roddy White in his armoury that will still provide a threat that the Vikings will have to watch.

Both teams are in-form and have overcome adversity this season but a loss here would prove costly - the Falcons have hung in there all season but the Vikings look a more effective running force here against a Falcons defence only ranked 22nd against the run.

Recommendation: Minnesota from 1-3 to a NFC North title - back the Vikings -2.5 at 1.83.

Carolina (11-3) at NY Giants (11-3)

A month ago it would have been unbelievable if you’d said that this was the second of the week’s games in this preview that carried for the winner guaranteed home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

The Panthers march into the Big Apple on a three game winning streak and have won seven of their last eight games, although they are only three from three on the road. The Giants looked far and away the best side in the NFC a month ago and then like their wide receiver Plaxico Burress they managed to inflict some damage on themselves, losing their last two games, the first time they have dropped consecutive games since the start of the 2007 season.

The Panthers will need their two headed running game to function but also have a dangerous weapon in WR Steve Smith - the Giants just seem to have dropped emotionally and physically on the defensive side of the ball lately and that could prove key here.

Despite being Pro Bowl bound Giants QB Eli Manning has lost not only Burress lately but appears to be struggling when pressured and he was sacked eight times on Sunday - not a platform to build on for the Giants biggest game since last year’s Superbowl victory.

Recommendation: Momentum and confidence plus the points make the Panthers the pick in this winner takes all contest - back them +3.5 at 2.06

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NFL Week 15 Betting: Falcons meet Bucs in massive NFC South clash

By Andy Richmond
December 13th, 2008

Andy Richmond previews three games from a top weekend of NFL action - as well as Tampa’s trip to Atlanta, our expert also looks at Pittsburgh v Baltimore and NY Giants visit to Dallas.

Let’s start this week with some numbers - seven teams are in the race for the two NFC wild card spots, and four for the two AFC spots.

Only three of the eight divisions have been decided so far while others are wide-open. All four teams are on course to claim the AFC East division title and all four teams are still in the hunt for the post-season party in the NFC East.

With three weeks of the regular season left, just 10 teams are eliminated and 14 could still win their respective divisions - or miss playing over the post-season.

Situations like this establish the NFL as a premier organisation. Innovations like the salary cap and draft rules gives all sides hope in turning desperate seasons last year into winning ones this - unless of course you come from Detroit!

This week’s triumvirate of Sunday offerings is top class and first up are one of those comeback teams - the Falcons from Atlanta.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons
Both these sides suffered divisional losses last week, but that shouldn’t surprise as the NFC South is the stronghold of the home team - not one team has won away at a divisional rival this year.

You can also judge Atlanta’s fortunes early in the game - when they score first they are 8-1, when they don’t 0-4 is the result. The Falcons lost a close one last week at the Saints and it was possibly just a lack of inexperience on and off the field which cost them a valuable victory - they still have a potent attacking force and can pound a Bucs defence which appears to be suffering an identity crisis at the moment. Expect to see RB Michael Turner loosen up the Bucs defence for rookie QB Matt Ryan to use WR Roddy White, who is leading the league in receiving yards and is quietly putting together one of the best seasons in franchise history.
If I have a worry about the Falcons it is their ability to stop the run - they leaked 184 yards to the Saints last week, not normally a team who worry that much about running the football - and they will need to address that area of the game this week.

Atlanta average 32.2 points at the Georgia Dome, expect to see that added to on Sunday as they keep comeback alive.
Recommendation: Back the Falcons to keep the dream alive at 1.6 and take a look at the Atlanta match points (+24.5) at 1.96.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
Attritional is the summation of this game - two teams who are mirror images of each other - and this will be close, but the Steelers have not won in Baltimore since 2002.

These two teams just do not allow the opposition many yards - fact - they are ranked one and two in that category in the NFL.

So all set for a boring game then? No way is my answer, this for me is the game of the weekend and full of intrigue and great match-ups.

With both teams so strong at stopping the run this may well come down to who can move the ball through the air better - Steelers QB Roethlisberger or rookie Ravens QB Joe Flacco. Roethlisberger is brave and stands in the pocket as well as anyone in the NFL but his direction and touch sometimes let him down and Ravens Free Safety Ed Reed, is a great anticipator of where the ball is going to be thrown - he has four interceptions in his last three games and the Steelers are going to have to throw the ball.

Ravens QB Flacco is going to face an almighty pass rush from Steelers linebackers James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley if he avoids this and finds primary target Derrick Mason, who has been in good form lately and caught eight passes for 137 yards against the Steelers in Week 4, then the Ravens can get the scoreboard ticking against the tough Steelers “D”.
Recommendation: Scrap of the week - Ravens at 1.8 to provide the knockout blow … eventually.

NY Giants at Dallas Cowboys
Never a dull moment with these two teams - the Giants already missing WR Plaxico Burress, now have featured RB Brandon Jacobs out through injury. Throw into the mix problems in the Cowboys camp with owner Jerry Jones unhappy at the team’s commitment and a supposed locker room rift between Romo and Owens.

That little lot might give you a recipe for interest but it doesn’t make for a great punting canvas but there are a couple of angles to consider if you do play.

I’m not sure both teams will play with their usually fluidity as they both have lots to lose - the Giants are under pressure for the number one spot in the NFC while the Cowboys might miss out altogether, the wild card route the only one open now.

The Giants need to cope without Jacobs and also need to move the ball more effectively in passing situations while the Cowboys need to find far more cohesion and timing than they have in the past few weeks.

Recommendation: Caution! Due to the soap opera surrounding both teams - the Giants have more pedigree and confidence at the moment - back the Big Apple Boys (+3.5) at 1.84.

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NFL Week 14 Betting: Comeback kings Miami roll into Canada for Bills battle

By Andy Richmond
December 5th, 2008

Andy Richmond previews three key fixtures with the play-off picture developing - Washington’s visit to Baltimore, New Orelans’ last-chance fixture against Atlanta, and of course Miami v Buffalo.

The wonderful world of the NFL continued this week - the big story being Giants WR Plaxico Burress managing to shoot himself this week in a New York nightclub - it hit him in the thigh and the story continues to roll. With the weeks of the regular season now running out, there are a few teams this week who with a Plaxico-like slip could shoot their playoff hope into oblivion.

First up a team that have not featured that much on SKY this year but will be well worth a watch on Sunday, the Baltimore Ravens.

Washington Redskins at Baltimore Ravens
Rookie coach, rookie QB - a familiar formula in the NFL this year. Atlanta thought they had the patent on this combination but Baltimore might just be a replica in the making. Five win and 11 defeats last year after 13-3 the year before, some radical surgery was required, so out went long-standing Coach Brian Billick and in came rookie John Harbaugh, who made an immediate big call to go with another rookie at QB Joe Flacco - success ensued.

If there is a criticism of the Ravens it’s that they have feasted on the NFL’s lesser teams and not cut the mustard against the tougher sides. A three-game stretch against tougher sides is coming up, we are about to find out if the rookie formula can bring success back to Baltimore.

The Ravens have won their last two straight games by a combined score of 70-10 while the Redskins have lost three of four, the latest a real thrashing by the Plaxico-less NY Giants. The one saving grace for the Redskins is that they have been excellent on the road this year winning four from five and that same effort will be needed on Sunday to stop a Ravens team with real momentum.

Both teams have top-10 ranked defences. The Ravens unit, led by the rejuvenated veterans Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, have proved particularly strong against both run and pass, conceding 190 points all year. Washington have scored 17 points or less in five of the last seven games and could be in for a long afternoon. They will really struggle if their offence’s focal point, RB Clinton Portis, is hampered on Sunday by injury - he is the motor which drives this offence and when he doesn’t show up this offence disappears.

I really like what the Ravens are doing on offence and Flacco should have plenty of time on Sunday as the Redskins “D”, as good as it is, doesn’t have much pass rushing capability, Flacco will need to be careful though as the Skins feature a canny secondary.

The next three weeks are tough for the Ravens they have all the components to handle the situation and might just make this the year of the rookie.

Recommendation: Back the Ravens to rack up the points again - Baltimore (-5.5) at 2.0 match odds.

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
While the Ravens/Redskins game could be a defensive battle - we have a game here which features two top-10 offences and in Drew Brees a quarterback who was born to pass.

The Saints stand at 6-6 so this is the final shot for them on Sunday and defeat would set the seal on a very disappointing season for them. Conversely, the Falcons have overachieved with the rookie formula working for them too - QB Matt Ryan being particularly impressive with his decision-making on passing downs and the power running game led by Michael Turner - if he rushes for 96+ yards then Atlanta wins.

The Falcons have a much better balanced offence but Brees and his receiving corps have been on the money all season and Coach Payton is determined to live or die by the pass. Brees, whilst he stacks up the passing yards does throw picks, and the Saints don’t have a complete enough team to make up for those mistakes.

Recommendation: Tough call this and only a token selection - the Falcons may provide enough scope at 2.5 to have some trading options during the game.

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
The NFL moves to Canada this week with Buffalo playing in Toronto for the first time and they are going to see a Bills side playing poorly - they have lost five of their last six, the low point a 10-3 home loss to the 49ers last week.

Miami are the comeback team of the year, 1-15 last year to 7-5 this, and have a real shot at the post-season party. The other break that the Dolphins have got this week is that they don’t have to play outside in the Buffalo cold - this game is indoors at the Rogers Centre.

That changes the balance of this contest for me and should suit the Wildcat offence that the Dolphins love - and which has been a fun and fruitful addition to the league this year.

Miami are on a roll, winning five of their last six, and we must give a final plaudit to offensive co-ordinator Dan Henning for his mixed and eclectic play calling - the Dolphins were awful last year but have provided a breath of fresh air this year in showing how to turn around a franchise.

Recommendation: “Flipper” is on a roll and the inside warmth with suit a Dolphins team with the X factor this year - Back the Comeback Kings (Miami) at 2.04 match odds.

Posted in nfl |

The Betfair Prof: How the Democrats won the Keys to the White House!

By Leighton Vaughan-Williams
December 2nd, 2008

There have been a number of fascinating articles on election forecasting published in ‘Foresight’, the magazine of the International Institute of Forecasters. Of these, perhaps one of the most accessible is that associated with the name of Professor Allan J. Lichtman.

Lichtman’s unique approach to political forecasting revolves around what he terms the ‘The Thirteen Keys to the White House’, a historically based model that is both simple and seemingly successful. The theory underpinning the “Keys” is that the result of a US Presidential election turns almost entirely on the performance of the party controlling the White House. There are 13 keys, each of which Lichtman assesses as either true or false. When five or fewer keys are false, the candidate of the incumbent party will win. When six or more are false, the candidate of the challenging party will win.

Key 1 is ‘Party mandate’ (”After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections”). In fact, the party of the incumbent President (the Republicans) lost seats in 2006, so this is FALSE.

Key 2 is ‘Contest’ (”There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination”). I don’t think Mitt Romney would agree with this. I would mark this as FALSE.

Key 3 is ‘Incumbency’ (”The incumbent party candidate is the sitting President”). FALSE.

Key 4 is ‘Third Party’ (”There is no significant third-party or independent campaign”). With all due respect to Ralph Nader and Bob Barr, I think we can say TRUE to this.

Key 5 is ‘Short-term economy’ (”The economy is not in recession during the election campaign”). I think we can reasonably assign this to the FALSE column.

Key 6 is ‘Long-term economy’ (Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.) FALSE.

Key 7 is ‘Policy Change’ (”The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy”). Economic crisis measures apart, I think it’s reasonable to mark this as FALSE.

Key 8 is ‘Social Unrest’ (”There is no sustained social unrest during the term”). TRUE.

Key 9 is ‘Scandal’ (”The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal”). Some scandalous things have happened under Bush’s watch, to be sure, but we can mark this in the sense meant as broadly TRUE.

Key 10 is ‘Foreign/military failure’ (”The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs”). FALSE, in spades.

Key 11 is ‘Foreign/military success’ (”The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs”). Well, the ’surge’ had some success, to the benefit of McCain. Let’s be generous to the Republicans and tick it in the TRUE column.

Key 12 is ‘Incumbent charisma’ (”The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero”). McCain was shot down during the Vietnam war, captured and hailed as a war hero. Let’s be generous again and mark him down as a TRUE national hero.

Key 13 is ‘Challenger charisma’ (”The incumbent-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero”). Obama not charismatic? FALSE.

Of course, it’s possible to disagree with a couple of the way I’ve marked these keys but whichever way you cut it, this adds up to six or more FALSE statements, which in turn adds up to a win for the Democrats. And so another success is chalked up for Professor Lichtman and his famous keys!

And for the Betfair markets which never once wavered in pointing to a Democratic victory.

Posted in Barack Obama, Betfair Prof, Blog, US President |

NFL Week 13 Betting: Can beauty Brees shred the Bucs’ beast again?

By Andy Richmond
November 29th, 2008

An extended NFL week sees another triple header hit our screens on Sunday night and boy are all these games close to call, says Andy Richmond.

Lots of teams have no margin for error now if they are to make the post season. All of the following still in with a chance…………….

New Orleans at Tampa Bay

New Orleans travel to divisional rivals Tampa Bay, full of confidence after their impressive 51-29 win on Monday Night Football - Drew Brees once again dismantling a highly rated pass defence - the 3rd ranked Packers - with a 323 yard and 4TD display. QB Brees meets the second ranked pass defence in the NFL this time but if the last meeting is anything to go by the result could well be the same - he shredded the Bucs for 343 yards and three deep TD passes of 39, 84, and 43 yards. Throw in the return of RB Reggie Bush from injury and you have a very potent Saints offence coming at you here.

Tampa Bay, however, have improved since that first meeting, being 5-0 at home for the first time in franchise history, 8-3 sees them top the NFC South and they will want to win this one as they face divisional rivals Carolina and Atlanta on the road in the next two weeks - games which will definitely decide their fate.

This game is a bit like beauty and the beast, the Saints offence game has been beautiful to watch, well apart from Monday when this Packers fan had to sit and suffer as Brees went to work. He’ll have to be at his beat again as the Tampa Bay secondary has tightened since that last meeting way back in Week One - not allowing more than 247 pass yards since that occasion. The return of Bush would help greatly as it will bring much needed balance to the Saints offence.

I mentioned the beast and that could mean two elements when applied to the Bucs - the offence still has issues, don’t be fooled by the 38 point tally last week - firstly that was against the Lions (enough said) and 14 of those points came from special teams and the defence. This is an ugly offence - the backfield lacks depth and there are few big play targets in the passing game but QB Garcia keeps it simple and gets the job done. The defence is a beast, ranking highly on all facets of the game; they have allowed Tampa Bay to get in this 8-3 position.

Can Brees pick apart another defence? - If he can then the Saints are back in the divisional race and too big a price for this match up.

Recommendation: Underdog time get with the Saints to cause an upset - 2.8 match odds or with +3.5 at 2.12 - your choice and don’t forget you always have trading options.

Atlanta at San Diego

The main storyline in this clash is Falcons RB Michael Turner and his return to San Diego where he played backup to LaDainian Tomlinson for four seasons. Turner has stepped out of LT’s shadow this year to headline one of the overachieving teams of the year - whilst the Chargers have been the exact opposite, although to illustrate the fine lines in the NFL, the Chargers seven losses have been by an average of four points.

Another success for the Falcons has been rookie QB Matt Ryan - this offence has been incredibly efficient and they meet a very porous Chargers pass defence on Sunday which should give Ryan the opportunity to use his main pass receiver Roddy White, the Chargers D being better run stuffers than pass stoppers, that may just give Turner a more competitive outing this week.

The Chargers are still incredibly in the post season race but only just, the Falcons may just have to extend their winning streak over the Charger to five - another close one.

Recommendation: Much closer than the oddsmakers suggest, once again the underdog can have its day - Falcons 2.9 or +5.5 at 1.9 making this a similar contest to the opening game.

Chicago at Minnesota

Another divisional clash where it will be a fine line between success and failure - both teams come off impressive road victories and the outright lead in the NFC North is at stake here.

I’d be surprised if we get a repeat of the Bears 48-41 barn burner victory back in Week Seven - but I will predict that this will see a head to head between both the Vikings and Bears running games, with Matt Forte (Bears) and Adrian Peterson (Vikings) the major players - both defences handle the run well, the edge given slightly to the Vikings.

Therefore whilst the run will form the basis of this game in both execution and prevention, it will be the team which gets the other parts of the game done best that will come out on top, to my mind the Bears have just that little bit more about them offensively certainly in the QB department where Vikings QB Frerotte looks shaky at times.

Once again another game where the odds should be closer than they are and I’m going for the Bears to scrape a tight one in Minnesota.

Recommendation:

Repeat…..of above - odds should be closer and for the third time it’s the underdog Bears at 2.66 as the value call or take some handicap insurance with the Bears +3.5 at 1.9.

Posted in nfl |